Let’s stop pretending that Iran is a poor Arab country with poorly educated people. Their current President is a heart surgeon. They rank 4th in the world for IQ based on the 2026 Average IQ by Country rankings from the International IQ Test; much higher than the United States which was 39th.
What is their plan for this war? Time. The above picture shows the cliffs on the Iranian Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. They are embedded with military installations to hold off any invasion. Their western and eastern borders are large mountain ranges. In other words, an invasion would be suicide. Just ask Iraq.
With Iran’s missiles and drones, any naval attack is suicide. See Millennial Challenge 2002 for a practical example. There is no way to isolate Iran from Russia, China and North Korea if the war escalates. Yes their currency has been successfully attacked by the US to start a color revolution in January. And their infrastructure has been bombed by Israel and the US which has impacted travel and transportation of war materiel.
So the course forward will still be dictated by Netanyahu. His only option is to convince the US to launch a limited tactical nuclear strike. He has already stated that they will not participate in a land attack with Israeli soldiers. He also has sabotaged every ceasefire or deadline to ensure the continuation of this war to establish a Greater Israel. So the wildcard is Trump. Congress is mostly quiet to limit their exposure as the “war” descends into chaos and the President descends into madness. Ask yourself if you want Trump to be able to decide a nuclear attack with no oversight based on his rhetoric and actions.
If I was Iran, I would bide my time. The longer the Strait is closed, the more the impact is felt on multiple trade fronts: oil, plastics, fertilizer, helium and medical components for a short list. We already see the impact in Ireland and this will spread throughout Europe in the coming week. The pressure has built and the release valve foreshadows the worst possible outcome.
Trump had an out with the ceasefire. As usual, Israel broke the ceasefire by carpet bombing Lebanon. Worse yet, Trump and Vance tried to cover it up as a misunderstanding on Iran’s side. How much longer will Trump (if it is Trump) be a puppet in a game with such high stakes?
It is probable that this interim ceasefire is a facade for an invasion of Iran. What would I do if I was Iran in this scenario? Once the bombing started, I would sink every oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. Imagine the environmental impact, the lack of drinking water and the loss of oil transport in the future. That is assuming that Iran does not destroy the desalination plants, refineries and loading docks.
Such an attack would have little impact on what would be left of Iran. Negative public opinion of Israel and the US would be immense as Russia and China rise to the top of the new multipolar order. Of course that assumes that there is no retaliation of a nuclear attack by the rest of the world.
Let’s play a game where Iran is bombed without tactical nuclear bombs. How much war materiel does the US have left? IF we have enough to carpet bomb Iran, where would we be if Russian or China attacked? The US government has been very attentive to destroying our culture and economic system. Just look at the response to Hurricane Helene in North Carolina. As Trump said:
“It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things.”
Let’s bottom line this: the US is broke, controlled by Israel and cannot defeat Iran with conventional military tactics. The longer this goes on, the more Iran wins. Israel will not allow that to happen.
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