State collapse is inevitable when a society’s leaders are insulated from the negative consequences of their bad decisions.
Mike Shelby
Not “drifted”….was dragged. And not legally…
My point exactly as stated in another post.
David, you inspired my from a later post to ask Chat GPT:
Q -Just math, no opinion, what is the statistical result that 2,848 counties moved toward Democrats out of 3,109?
A: Out of 3,109 counties:
– 2,848 counties (91.61%) moved toward Democrats.
– 261 counties (8.39%) did not.
– Ratio: 10.91 to 1.
Assuming each county has an independent 50/50 probability of moving in either direction, the binomial statistical results are:
– Expected number: 1,554.5 counties
– Standard deviation: 27.88 counties
– Z-score: +46.4 standard deviations
– P-value: Approximately \\(10^{-456}\\) (one-sided)
Statistical conclusion: Under the hypothetical independent 50/50 model, this outcome is extraordinarily unlikely to occur by chance.
This calculation does not account for correlations among counties, common national trends, or differing county populations. Therefore, the p-value is not a measure of the probability of election fraud or any other particular cause.
Q – What is the percent chance this occurred?
A: Assuming each county independently had a 50/50 chance of moving toward Democrats or Republicans, the probability of 2,848 or more out of 3,109 counties moving toward Democrats is approximately:
0.000…% (about 455 zeros before the first nonzero digit).
In scientific notation, approximately \\(10^{-454}\\%\\).
This is effectively zero under the independent 50/50 model. However, counties are not statistically independent, so this is not the probability of the actual election outcome occurring naturally.
My personal opinion conclusion – we must outlaw electronic voting, they can be hacked, thus not at all trust worthy with a
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of this Blue wave occurrence.
FWIW I have never typed a mathematical result with 45 zeros to the right of a decimal point.
With respect Crawfisher math doesn’t always apply to HUMAN Emotions during a voting session.
People pissed off that their heating fuel, electric bills have JUMPED while their PAYCHECKS have not and maybe even some of their family or friends’ family off fighting Israels’ wars MIGHT affect the voters.
In NH exit polls were CLEAR. People we MAD we were at War FOR ISRAEL (or simply at war with Iran) AND that clearly affected how EXPENSIVE their heating oil, natty gas and Groceries have been.
That TRUMP has OPENLY lied to us and failed to do most everything He promised us with MAGA turning into Make Israel Great Again **Might** have affected the viewpoints of those voter?
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