State collapse is inevitable when a society’s leaders are insulated from the negative consequences of their bad decisions.
Mike Shelby
Old news…
What’s actually happening (real, current context in October 2026)
Russian Black Sea/Azov grain exports have been severely disrupted for months by Ukrainian strikes on ports and ships (and Russian strikes on Ukrainian ones). Black Sea wheat loadings dropped sharply in September (reports cite declines of 40–78% year-on-year in some datasets).
Russia has been heavily rerouting grain to Baltic ports (often 50–80% of wheat shipments in recent months), converting some fertilizer/coal terminals, and increasing rail capacity. Putin has ordered priority rail transit for grain exports.
Russia paused the floating export duty on wheat, barley, and corn through the end of 2026 to help with the logistics problems.
Fertilizer exports continue but under domestic-priority quotas/limits; the Baltic shift is creating some pressure on fertilizer logistics. Russia has given preferential access to partners like Turkey and has not announced a blanket ban on “hostile nations.” Official statements emphasize continuing to meet export obligations and supporting farmers amid the disruptions.
HMMPH, who coulda seen THAT coming?!?! It’s a mystery. snarc
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