Although Donald Trump insists that the Strait of Hormuz is open, it ain’t. There are no direct talks between Iran and US representatives. In fact, it looks like Pakistan’s attempt at mediation is going nowhere. Iran has been talking with Oman, but those talks — despite claims of progress — appear to have stalled.
Iran updated its demands that the US must accept if it wants the Strait of Hormuz back in full operation:
‘Until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened.
Correcting behavior means:
- Never threaten Iran with any language nor insult the sanctities of this nation.
- End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq permanently.
- Lift the naval blockade and withdraw U.S. naval and air forces from the area surrounding Iran.
- Pay the damages for the two aggressive wars imposed against Iran.
- Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation.
- Release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people unconditionally.
These are the demands of the Iranian people who have been relentlessly present in the squares and streets for 160 days.
Some in the West are treating these demands like they are something new. They are not. Let me remind you that in early April 2026 (around April 6), Iran delivered a 10-point proposal (sometimes called a peace plan or counter-proposal) to the United States. It was conveyed via Pakistan, which was mediating. This responded to an earlier U.S. 15-point proposal. Iranian state media and subsequent reporting summarized the key elements; no complete official English text of every point was universally published at the time, but consistent accounts of the main demands included the following:
- A permanent/non-aggression guarantee that Iran (and related fronts) would not be attacked again.
- Continued Iranian coordination/control or a secure transit protocol for the Strait of Hormuz (with some versions mentioning fees or arrangements involving Oman).
- Ending hostilities against Iran’s regional allies/“Axis of Resistance” (including in Lebanon).
- Full or broad U.S./Western sanctions relief (primary and secondary).
- Termination of relevant UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions.
- Release of frozen Iranian assets.
- Compensation or reconstruction funding for war damage.
- Related security and non-interference provisions.
Iran is holding firm to its demands. I remain skeptical that Donald Trump will agree to these terms. In fact, Trump reportedly has decided to launch a new campaign of bombing and missile strikes, despite warnings from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that US missile inventories are running dangerously low. Folks at CENTCOM who thought they would have a long weekend reportedly have been called back to work to finish planning the new round of strikes.
Lots of mixed signals. I cannot rule out the possibility of Trump ordering a new surprise attack in hopes that it will force Iran to capitulate.
As expected, Iran is pressing hard to extract from Washington everything it can get – at a moment the Trump White House seems to be backing down from a heighted war over the Strait of Hormuz, given the serious risk of settling into a another years-long quagmire in the Middle East.
The US administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has appeared to back the Iran-Oman deal for the opening of the Strait, with President Trump and his officials having remained surprisingly quiet even as it has emerged that the deal outline is wholly favorable to Tehran’s conditions.
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