War On Iran: – Another TACO – Iran’s Need To Escalate

Once again the U.S. president threatened to bomb Iran to smithereens. Once again he pulled back, while, once again, claiming that Iran was begging for negotiations, which, once again, Iran denied.

Welcome to Monday.

It is the fifth time Trump TACOed on bombing Iran.

Last Saturday, while the U.S. military was getting ready to (again) bomb Iran. Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, picked up the phone and called up his colleagues in the Arab Gulf states. He read them lists of the individual targets in their countries which Iran would destroy should Trump, for once, do what he promised.

The Gulf countries consulted each other. Mohammad bin Sultan, the Saudi ruler, was chosen to tell Trump – in diplomatese – to shut the fuck up:

HRH the Crown Prince stressed the need to prioritize dialogue to reduce escalation and the importance of making every possible effort to achieve calm that paves the way for diplomatic solutions, preserves the region’s security and stability, and prevents a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability.

Without exporting oil Saudi Arabia would not be able to import U.S. weapons. It would have to sell treasuries to finance its living.

Explaining such second order effects might well have been what moved Trump:

The crown prince also asked for clarity over U.S. strategy on Iran and the planned strikes, the officials familiar with the matter said.

Behind the scenes, Gulf countries are frustrated with what they see as a lack of a clear strategy from the U.S. as the war drags on, subjecting their territories to frequent Iranian attacks, people familiar with the matter said.

Iran no longer believes in a peace deal. It is content to keep going until the U.S. fundamentally changes its hostile strategy.

But Iran is unlikely to wait for the U.S. next strike. It will instead soon start its own escalation. There will be more ‘surprises’ for U.S. ships and installations.

The Strait of Hormuz will stay closed. Additionally the Bab al-Mandab exit from the Red Sea is closed for Saudi exports. Iran will keep it that way until the economic consequences will make themselves felt more urgently in Donald Trump’s own country.

The man-child in the White House it out of options but also too stubborn to give in.

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