Today Zelensky announced a new series of “revelations” regarding the ongoing Belarus-vectored escalation.
Zelensky now claims that Ukraine has detected a plethora of other war preparations that Russia is allegedly making in Belarus, near the Ukrainian border, presumably for the future invasion from Belarus that Zelensky had already hinted at months ago was being gradually prepared by Russia.
Keep in mind, none of this should necessarily be treated with outright skepticism. For all we know, Russia truly has been making such preparations—after all, it certainly would be logical for Russia to finish what it started in 2022, and cut off or capture Kiev for good. And for those skeptical: why would Russia have any moral, ethical, or legal qualms against doing so now if it happily launched an offensive from Belarus just four years earlier in 2022?
The only skepticism comes from the understanding that Zelensky is now desperately searching for a new avenue of provocation in order to widen the conflict, and so for this reason alone this information should be treated cautiously. Also, these could just be long term Russian projects for general regional security, given the obvious understanding that the West is itself militarizing all along the Union State’s borders.
As for the Belarus situation, Lukashenko himself stated that if Ukraine attacks Belarus the nature of the conflict “will change instantly”.
This is essentially Russia’s plan: continue stripping Ukraine of its resources while bankrupting the EU’s ability to provide meaningful support for Ukraine. Is it a foolproof plan? No. Is it absolutely guaranteed to work? No. But it is far more likely to go Russia’s way than the recent Ukrainian theatrics going Zelensky’s way.
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