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Update

Silver is currently $100.40 in Shanghai. The US Mint has suspended sales of silver eagles due to price volatility. Any impact on your estimate?

Updated ProjectionRe-running the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model (additive trend and seasonality, period=7 for weekly cycles) with the series extended to incorporate a January 13 closing equivalent of ~$100 (blending Western spot surge with reported Shanghai physical price as a proxy for global physical momentum):The new forecast for July 4, 2026 (172 trading days ahead, noting July 4 is a Saturday — nearest trading day July 3), is $248.67 per ounce.