State collapse is inevitable when a society’s leaders are insulated from the negative consequences of their bad decisions.
Mike Shelby
Turkey is playing NATO, Russia, Ukraine and Israel with this new accord. Will Israel win with this strategy to take out Iran and Turkey? Do not overlook Israeli and Turkish goals to carve up Syria.
Meanwhile, Trump is overseeing the collapse of the nation as our national debt will hit $40 trillion in less than two weeks, our US Treasuries are becoming worth less and Bessent has to bail out the Japanese yen in order to cushion the fall of the USD.
Good. Burn it all to the ground. Enough is enough. Happy Friday 🍻
The Turkey end of this is going to get very interesting. It all spells big trouble for all parties in the region unless the shia and sunni come to some understanding. That friction is USreal’s best hope of keeping the growing powers there hostile to each other.
Turkey is already a de facto nuclear power since they have sovereign custody of the several dozen US B61 nuclear gravity bombs stored at the Incirlik airbase. Ltc. Aquillar discussed this at length on the Nima podcast yesterday. He made the claim that these weapons are under Turkish control and not US, and given that reality, there is no way Turkey will ever give them back willingly. I was aware the bombs were there, but assumed US custody. I also assumed the Turks had a military plan to seize them from US control if there was a falling out with the US. According to Ltc Aquillar, that assumption is false. He also said these bombs were tactical and had none of the controls required to activate, arm, and use that are associated with strategic weapons. You can simply fuze them and put them in an f-16 bomb rack and go flatten Tel Aviv. Given this, I expect that the Israeli threshold for a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Incirlik is very low.
Turkey benefits from this borrowed nuclear arsenal without the hassle of international nuclear inspections because of NATO membership. That includes European Patriot batteries that protect the airbase, unless they were removed to benefit Ukraine in recent years. A change in Turkish or US NATO status will affect all of that and bring the question of custody of the weapons to a head.
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