Pepe Escobar and I received the following intelligence report last Thursday, which was produced by a knowledgeable source with access. I am not reproducing the entire report, but want to highlight the issue of whether or not Iran now has, or soon will have a nuke. Let me emphasize that I firmly support past US intel community assessments that Iran, until now, had no interest in obtaining a nuke.
However, it appears that the surprise attack on 28 February, which followed the aborted color revolution attempted in late December 2025, played a decisive role in changing Iran’s view on this matter. Here is a portion of what Pepe and I received last Thursday:
It would seem that everything the United States government does results in the opposite of what it declares it wants. It seems to always make things worse than when it interfered. Before the U.S. unprovoked attack on a nation that posed no threat to it, the Straights that were open are now closed and the nation that declared it would not build a nuclear weapon and which our intelligence concluded that they weren’t, apparently has decided to build one after all. Thank you President Trump. More from Sonar21:
The secondary effects of this standoff are rewiring the global strategic and financial architecture in real time:
• The Collapse of the Abraham Accords: The political infrastructure sustaining Israeli-Arab normalization is functionally dead. Pakistan has publicly rejected it, Saudi Arabia has frozen all back-channel discussions, and Qatar and Oman are actively preparing a six-to-nine-month timeline for U.S. forces to vacate their military installations.
• The Emerging Security Axis: A new Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey-Egypt security architecture is being constructed, completely detached from U.S. backing. Pakistan has elevated itself from a peripheral player to the indispensable operational pivot, leveraging an Islamic cultural proximity that neither Washington nor Beijing can replicate.
• Systemic Risk to the Global Order: An Iranian nuclear demonstration would obliterate the global non-proliferation framework and hand Beijing an unearned, definitive proof-of-concept regarding the limits of American hegemony.
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