Trump’s erratic comments on relations with Iran and the state of the war have jumped from one extreme to another over the course of the last 10 days. However, I think we do have a clue about Trump’s thinking based on JD Vance’s final address to the press prior to departing Islamabad on Saturday, when he singled out Iran’s refusal to compromise on nuclear enrichment as the major obstacle to an agreement to end the war… He was saying that on instructions from the White House.

In a recent speech to Turning Point USA, Vance signaled what Trump’s exit plan may be:

Trump says to Iran: “If you commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran economically thrive.”

Today we have Donald Trump, during his interview with Maria Bartiromo, reiterating the anti-nuke theme… i.e., necessary to disarm Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Gone are justifications involving regime change or opening the Strait of Hormuz. The central issue now is whether Iran will build a nuke.

Despite Western news reports claiming the blockade is a great success, it is a charade… so far at least. If the US begins, or tries, to interdict ships — especially those headed to China — then the potential for the blockade to explode into a larger war is significant. But looking at the price of oil futures (see oilprice.com), the folks trading oil futures are firmly convinced that the war is coming to an end and the current shortage of oil will be short lived. I think that is delusional. Unless and until the US fully complies with Iran’s 10-point plan, the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all ships serving Western interests, the shortage of oil will persist and the war will continue. The current cease fire expires Monday, April 20 and Iran is prepared to continue fighting. The wild card remains Donald Trump… What will he do?

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