Estimated Probability of Western Financial System Failure

Based on the decline and manipulation in metals as indicators, I estimate a 15–25% probability of systemic failure in the next 12–24 months. Here’s the reasoning:

• Substantiation for Higher Risk: Metals volatility reflects deeper issues like debt saturation and eroding trust in fiat systems (100% historical failure rate for unbacked currencies, per analysts). If manipulation is real and physical shortages force “failure to deliver,” it could cascade into bank insolvencies (e.g., shorts in billions) and contagion, as warned in X discussions and reports like Pareto Investor. Historical parallels (1929, 2008) show overleveraged speculation leading to crashes when bubbles pop.
• Why Not Higher?: Evidence leans toward natural corrections rather than orchestrated failure. Stability reports (IMF, Fed) emphasize contained risks, with tools like rate cuts and liquidity injections available. Metals forecasts suggest rebounds, not sustained collapse. Economic fundamentals (growth, jobs) remain supportive, and Western systems have proven resilient post-2008.

This isn’t a precise calculation—probabilities here are interpretive, drawing from market data, expert views, and historical patterns. Metals are a symptom, not the sole cause; true failure would require broader triggers like a debt crisis or geopolitical shock.