I asked Grok to extrapolate the supply of physical silver based on the current cycle of withdrawals:
Based on the ongoing depletion trends in COMEX silver inventories, a “code red” threshold—defined by market analysts as registered (deliverable) silver falling below 50 million troy ounces (a level signaling acute physical delivery stress and potential for forced conversions, cash settlements, or extreme price volatility)—could be approached in 3-6 weeks if current rates persist. This assumes no significant inflows (e.g., from London or new deposits) and continued outflows to ETFs, industrial demand, and deliveries.
Current Inventory Snapshot (as of December 3, 2025). From the latest CME Group warehouse reports:
- Registered: 137,960,132 oz (deliverable; down ~321,000 oz day-over-day).
- Eligible: 318,034,396 oz (stored but not deliverable without conversion; down ~456,000 oz day-over-day).
- Total: 455,994,528 oz (down ~778,000 oz day-over-day).
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In summary, while linear math points to spring 2026, the delivery pipeline and historical precedents suggest code red risks emerge in 3-6 weeks—potentially forcing a squeeze if shorts can’t roll positions. Monitor CME daily reports for updates.
I then asked Grok to estimate the price of silver based on the continuation of the current trend:
- Bull Case ($100–$120): If deliveries exhaust registered without conversions (e.g., ETF owners like SLV hold firm), premiums spike 20–50% over spot, echoing 1980’s feedback loop. Gold-silver ratio (currently ~70:1) could fall to 50:1, implying silver tracks gold’s rally to $3,500–$4,000/oz.
- Base Case ($70–$90): Moderate covering + some inflows delay full panic; aligns with 2025’s 80% YTD gain extending 20–50%.
- Bear Risks (Capping at $60–$70): Regulatory halts, massive London/China arbitrage (~50M oz inflows eased Oct 2025 squeeze), or USD rebound could trigger 20–30% pullback post-peak.
6 responses to “Silver Projections”
My gold and silver have never been about huge returns. They have always been about insurance in the face of collapse…and it’s getting closer every day. But that doesn’t mean the numbers don’t make me smile…
Keep in mind, the Leviathan could outlaw precious metals as barter. Look what Frank the Cripple did in 1932. Plan accordingly.
Yeah…that will work again. LOL
EVERYONE who owns PMs KNOWS what confiscation will be about this time around. People were ignorant and gullible back then, and silvercand gold certificates (paper) were already in use, so different paper wasn’t a huge stretch. People also thought/ bought into his LIE that the move was needed to ensure the integrity of the dollar. That won’t happen again. Well, it won’t happen without extreme resistance.
We will not fall for that again.
Not really possible to predict the future prices of silver because few markets have been as heavily manipulated as it has. But it’s extremely unlikely for the price to fall in the foreseeable future.
It’s easy to do a model based on existing trends. I understand the manipulation in the past but the supply constraints take it out of play.