In our jobs preview post, we told readers to “beware a bond squeeze as august seasonals reverse” and boy were we right: yields are tumbling from 5.22% to 5.16%, a new weekly low, as all those record TSY shorts get bigly squeezed following what was a big miss in the September jobs print which tumbled from a downward revised August (as we said it would be) 133K vs 162K originally to just 29K.
It wasn’t just August that was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000: July was also revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000. This means that the original negative print of -23K, and which was revised up to 31K last month, is now once again negative and that had the Fed known this, it most likely would not have hiked last month. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.
More notably, the 29K job print was below all estimates, which is amusing since August was originally above all estimates, but has since been revised sharply lower and just in line.
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