Estimated Probability of Western Financial System Failure

Based on the decline and manipulation in metals as indicators, I estimate a 15–25% probability of systemic failure in the next 12–24 months. Here’s the reasoning:

• Substantiation for Higher Risk: Metals volatility reflects deeper issues like debt saturation and eroding trust in fiat systems (100% historical failure rate for unbacked currencies, per analysts). If manipulation is real and physical shortages force “failure to deliver,” it could cascade into bank insolvencies (e.g., shorts in billions) and contagion, as warned in X discussions and reports like Pareto Investor. Historical parallels (1929, 2008) show overleveraged speculation leading to crashes when bubbles pop.
• Why Not Higher?: Evidence leans toward natural corrections rather than orchestrated failure. Stability reports (IMF, Fed) emphasize contained risks, with tools like rate cuts and liquidity injections available. Metals forecasts suggest rebounds, not sustained collapse. Economic fundamentals (growth, jobs) remain supportive, and Western systems have proven resilient post-2008.

This isn’t a precise calculation—probabilities here are interpretive, drawing from market data, expert views, and historical patterns. Metals are a symptom, not the sole cause; true failure would require broader triggers like a debt crisis or geopolitical shock.

Many of us are trying to understand why Trump has been doing the things he’s been doing lately – because they seem to be destructive things, as regards the political palatability (and so, viability) of MAGA.

It was weird – and a little appalling – when Trump suddenly sicced the military on Venezuelan speedboats, blowing not just them but also their helpless occupants into oblivion. The justification – drugs – seemed equally weird given the drugs Trump complains about generally come from Mexico, not Venezuela. It also made many of us feel a little sick to watch people bobbing in the water being obliterated. That sort of thing – the execution of helpless people who are no longer capable of shooting back – got people court-martialed once upon a time.

Then Trump sent in the Hut! Hut! Hut! crew to literally kidnap a foreign head of state. Whatever you think about Maduro, he was the president of Venezuela. Where did Trump get the authority to just remove a foreign head of state? And – why? Venezuela has lots of oil, it is said – and that is true. But it’s going to be tough to get that oil – and get it to the United States, as every serious analyst agrees. American companies being reluctant to invest hugely in an iffy foreign country that could easily become a very difficult place to do business in.

Then there’s Greenland. All of a sudden it is a strategic – and existential – necessity for America to annex it. Never mind that there is already an American base there and it’s not 1945 anymore, anyhow. No Lend Lease convoys are heading for Europe from America. And Russian hypersonic missiles are too fast to be stopped by countermeasures installed on Greenland anyhow.

So – again – why?

Most recently, Trump has made public anti-gun utterances after his FBI director made similar utterances. It has understandably alarmed many of Trump’s increasingly uncomfortable Second Amendment-supporting supporters, who thought they were voting for a man (and an administration) that wasn’t gun-grabby. (Yes, I know. Trump has not actually grabbed any guns – yet. But it is reasonable to worry he might grab them going forward, given what he and Patel, the FBI director, have said. Which indicates what they think.)

The above all happened after a man got shot to death in the street in the course and context of what many people see as a purposely inflammatory display of federal goonery. Ten million illegals aren’t going to be rounded up by ICE and deported. It is a logistical improbability – shy of martial law and neighborhood-by-neighborhood sweeps. Which may be coming.

It is not popular, however. Every poll shows Trump has lost the power of the immigration issue he rode back into office. Most Americans were not happy with the open border and wanted something done to close it and something done to deal with the very real problem of the 10 million-plus strange and exotic people who are demographically and so politically threatening to change America forever. They would probably welcome and even cheer cutting off the Free Shit and siccing the FBI on state/local officials who refuse to comply. But they are understandably uneasy about what certainly looks like a metastasizing police state that they fear – also understandably – might wheel around and police them, going forward.

Read the Whole Article Here…

If this is not the end game, I don’t know what is. The slams in the metals market today are unimaginable. Trump is dead set on following Israel in a devastating war with Iran. The Deep State has been exposed as a well oiled machine financed by NGOs and China designed to destroy the country from within. Amelia is a small spark of light for England but only time will tell how stiff their upper lip is. The EU is bankrupt fiscally and morally.

What are you doing to cope with this new reality? Ground yourself in prayer to God and walk His path.

Did a major US bank just pull their last hail Mary? Silver is currently $149 in Shanghai.

Most people don’t care what it’s called, but for the purpose of defining the problem so we can identify course of action steps to combat it, it’s necessary to define what’s happening in Minneapolis. However, there is not one strict answer, so we have to look at definitions, lines of efforts, varying centers of gravity for those efforts, and objectives.

What we’re currently witnessing in Minneapolis is a broader effort within the United States to conduct a Color Revolution in the future. There is also an effort to develop an underground and auxiliary, components of Unconventional Warfare. The goals of both are complimentary, have parallel lines of efforts, but the end state looks very different.

So what is a Color Revolution?

“Color revolutions refer to a series of non-violent, mass protest movements aimed at challenging authoritarian regimes and promoting democratic change, often through civil disobedience, media campaigns, and international support.”

What is Unconventional Warfare?

The above article is an excellent breakdown of the mechanics and methods that we are up against. To win we’re going to have to use “Non-Christian” tactics, just the way George Washington used “Non-Gentlemanly” tactics to defeat the British. Many American Christians will not do that. They’d rather their children die than be called racist or be slightly inconvenienced. Many people on “our side” are going to have to die off to get them out of the way of those willing to fight the Evil that we are up against.

People need to harden up and wake up.

Wes