I hope Vance does better than Pence did with COVID-19.

China

Los Angeles

What do you notice?

From Grok:

Projecting job losses due to AI involves synthesizing forecasts from various sources, including Forrester, the World Economic Forum (WEF), McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, and detailed estimates from think tanks like Infinitive. These projections vary based on assumptions about AI adoption rates, economic conditions, and whether they focus on gross displacements (jobs eliminated or automated) or net changes (accounting for new jobs created by AI-driven growth). Most sources emphasize that while AI will displace millions of roles—particularly in routine, administrative, and entry-level white-collar work—it will also create opportunities in fields like AI development, data science, and oversight of automated systems.Key caveats:

• Forecasts are for the US unless noted as global.
• Displacements are often structural (permanent shifts) rather than cyclical.
• Optimistic views (e.g., Forrester) predict moderate net losses with augmentation dominating replacement.
• Pessimistic views (e.g., from AI CEOs like Dario Amodei of Anthropic) warn of higher unemployment (10–20% by 2030), potentially wiping out half of entry-level white-collar jobs.
• Global context from WEF: 92 million jobs displaced worldwide by 2030, but 170 million new ones created, for a net gain of 78 million.

Based on available data, I’ve synthesized a year-by-year projection for the US, drawing primarily from Infinitive’s granular breakdown (which aligns with broader trends) and extrapolating for 2030 using the observed pattern of accelerating losses (increases of ~50,000 in gains and ~300,000 in losses annually). This assumes continued AI maturation, with displacements outpacing creations in the near term. Figures are approximate and represent AI-attributable impacts.

Cumulative Summary (2026–2030)

• Total Projected Displacements (Gross Losses): Approximately 6 million jobs, concentrated in sectors like services (e.g., customer support, retail), office support (e.g., clerks, admins), and manufacturing. This aligns with MIT/Boston University estimates of 2 million manufacturing losses by 2026 alone, scaling up thereafter. nexford.edu
• Total Projected Creations (Gross Gains): Approximately 1 million jobs, mainly in AI-related roles (e.g., developers, ethicists) and augmented fields.
• Net Impact: Around -5 million jobs, representing a structural shift but not a full “apocalypse.” This is more conservative than some CEO warnings but higher than WEF’s global net gain projection (scaled to US: ~4 million displacements vs. ~8.5 million creations).