I asked Grok the following question:
If this continues at this rate for the entire month, what is the sigma for this volume vs historical contracts for February?
Grok’s answer:
The projected total volume if the current rate continues for the entire month is calculated as follows: The current total is 27,520 contracts as of February 3, 2026. Assuming this represents activity over the first 2 trading days (February 2 and 3, since February 1 was a Sunday), the average daily rate is 27,520 / 2 = 13,760 contracts per day. February 2026 has 19 trading days (22 weekdays minus Presidents Day on February 16).
Projected total volume = 13,760 × 19 = 261,440 contracts.
Based on available historical data for February COMEX gold delivery volumes from 2020 to 2025 (approximate values: 40,000 in 2020, 20,000 in 2021, 10,000 in 2022, 6,000 in 2023, 9,000 in 2024, 60,000 in 2025), the mean is 24,167 contracts and the standard deviation is approximately 21,500 contracts. The sigma (z-score) is (261,440 – 24,167) / 21,500 ≈ 11.03.
I then asked:
Can you give me an analogy for the average person to understand the probability of an 11 sigma event?
Grok’s answer:
1. The lottery analogy (most intuitive)
Imagine the biggest Powerball-style lottery in the world where:
- You buy one ticket
- The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 300 million
Now imagine you play that same lottery every single day … and you win the jackpot 22 days in a row. That’s roughly the scale of an 11-sigma event.
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